Ten questions. Give a range you're 90% sure of, or say how sure you are a claim is true. Honesty scores; bravado doesn't.
You win a prize if the truth is inside your range. Or you could spin a wheel that wins 90% of the time. Which would you rather have?
Imagine the reveal: the truth is outside your range. Where is it more likely to be?
How often the truth lands inside your 90% ranges. Calibrated is 90% — not 100%.
When the truth falls outside your range, which side does it land on?
On claims, how often you were right at each confidence level. On the diagonal is calibrated.
Hit rate and precision per category. Tap one to drill it.
Where the truth landed furthest from what you expected.
Calibration is a skill with techniques. Work the course in order, or jump to a drill. The Lab tracks the gains.